Saturday, May 8, 2010

The census will be wrong. We could fix it.

This is sort of a professional pet peeve among statisticians, and the issue comes up with every census;

Jordan Ellenberg writes: Opponents say that statistical adjustment would violate the constitutional requirement of an "actual enumeration" of the population. Justice Antonin Scalia wrote in 1998 that the Constitution's language was "arguably incompatible . . . with gross statistical estimates." The sampling adjustment is indeed an estimate of the population -- but so is the unadjusted number, which estimates that the number of Americans missed is zero! To choose the raw count is to be wrong on purpose in order to avoid being wrong by accident.

Emphasis added. There are demonstrably better statistical methods to perform census estimates, and they should be used.


[Hat Tip 2 Terence Tao]
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Friday, May 7, 2010

You Can't Trust Science!



I get it - I get the whole Atheism versus Religion thing. In matters related to science, the atheists generally have it right, and it's not too hard to find someone who is: A) a kook, and B) religious, that is sadly wrong on a given scientific matter. I'm cool with that.

There one thing that bugs me though; this video offers a good example of a bad argument. It is an error to say that because religion has little to offer in terms of scientific thought and progress, it has nothing to offer at all. Religion has a lot to offer*, just not in the realm of science and technology. There are valid criticisms of religion, but criticizing religion for not being scientific is just silly.

Likewise, atheism may be entirely agreeable to scientific thought, but it is the scientific thought and not the atheism that creates progress and technology. Giving atheism credit for science and technology is equally silly.

All I'm saying is that science and religion have to be appreciated on their own merits. And if you just want to see the boobs, they appear at 3:20 into the video. ;-)

* I won't go into what religion offers and/or what it has accomplished, because that is a matter of individual beliefs, and your mileage may vary. I won't get into that argument.

[Hat Tip to One Good Move]
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Friday, April 23, 2010

Apollo 11 Launch in Slow Motion

Found on Weird Science - Eight minutes to watch 30 seconds of rocket launch. Enjoy your front-row seat, and be glad you weren't actually ON the front row ...


Apollo 11 Saturn V Launch (HD) Camera E-8 from Mark Gray on Vimeo.
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Tuesday, April 20, 2010

First Video Directed by an Octopus

The first video directed by an octopus, and it's a chase scene!



I wonder how long before this is up on Pharyngula?

[Tip-O-Hat 2 IO9]
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Monday, April 19, 2010

Fair and Balanced and the short term memory of a gnat.

For your Monday morning amusement - Fox News never lies - Oh wait ...
Mark Evanier writes: The other day, Bill O'Reilly slapped a Congressman around for saying that Fox News was spreading the lie that if you don't buy health insurance, you'll go to jail. Here's an excerpt from that discussion and it's followed by...well, you can guess what it's followed by...


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Saturday, April 17, 2010

Intelligent Anagrams

I like Anagrams.
I like poking fun at Intelligent Design.
I like it when good things go together.

Discovery Institute --> Service Nutty Idiots
Discovery Institute --> It Sired Nutty Voices

Irreducible Complexity --> Extol Imbecilic Prudery
Irreducible Complexity --> Proudly Exert Imbecilic
Irreducible Complexity --> Dourly Imbecilic Expert

Answers in Genesis--> Seesawing Sinner
Answers in Genesis--> Sneering Ass Swine
Answers in Genesis--> Sneering Ass Wines
Answers in Genesis--> Sinners in Sewage
Answers in Genesis--> Ninnies Asses Grew
Answers in Genesis--> Insane Sewer Signs

Brought to you with the services of the Internet Anagram Server at Wordsmith.Org.
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Monday, March 8, 2010

Smoking Lettuce, Redux

An anonymous commenter replied to a video and comments I posted last June (see Smoking Lettuce). My posting has been lax lately, so the reply gets a whole post to itself. 

To briefly summarize, Representative Steve Buyer thinks smoking lettuce is the same as smoking cigarettes. I copied a statement from Buyer's web site stating that the FDA is under-funded and over-stressed and that they have no business trying to regulate a risky product; I agree to the first point and strongly disagree with the second. Oh ... and I might have implied that Representative Buyer is not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

But enough summarizing, you can read the original post if you must, let's get on to Anon's comment:



Anonymous said...
...Was he right? About the lettuce?

Well, actually, in the problems he outlined (Cancer, heart disease, and respiratory problems) he was right - you WOULD have similar problems. Now, in terms of the 'good stuff' - doubtful. Lettuce obviously wouldn't have whatever it is in tobacco that makes people keep smoking it (though I couldn't profess to know, in that I find smoking repulsive).

His point about the FDA? Yeah, it's overburdened and trying to sink its roots into nooks and crannies whenever it can. And when it tries regulating something that is already known to be dangerous - cigarettes - then it means your money is being spent insuring the 'safety' of a product that is KNOWN to be dangerous. How stupid can you get?!

And in the real world that most people don't like thinking about, the increased price on ciarettes as a result of the regulation would inflate the prices of legal smokes. So smokers get their cheaper cigs from elsewhere with less regulation - and the LEGAL distributors suffer, through no fault but the government's.

So yeah, what's up with Steve? Must be smoking lettuce or something.

Hello Anon,
Thanks for stopping by to comment. I suspect you have a certain political inclination on this, which is fine, but I think your concerns on this issue are misplaced.

You may indeed have similar problems with smoking lettuce, but I doubt there will ever be a serious study on the effects. However, I am certain that tobacco is naturally higher in aromatic hydrocarbons, tars, and has a number of ingredients artificially added (like formaldehyde). Aside from the smoke, chewing tobacco also has links to diseases such as oral cancer, and I am reasonable sure that you can chew lettuce all you want with no particular risk of cancer. So I can't prove that smoking lettuce is safer than smoking tobacco, but I strongly suspect it is true.

The stuff that keeps people smoking tobacco is nicotine, also naturally occurring, except that the tobacco companies strictly control the "dose" of nicotine delivered much in the same way that pharmaceutical companies control the dose of other drugs. If I recall, was the FDA's basis for the regulation of tobacco; tobacco may be naturally grown, but cigarettes are produced to the tolerances of prescription drug, are highly habit forming, are a serious health risk, and are marketed to kids. Now nicotine itself, addictive properties aside, isn't especially harmful, but it keeps their customers locked in a nearly unbreakable habit, and exposing themselves to the other harmful properties over-and-over again, sometimes for life ... and often a rather shorter and less healthy life. Tobacco companies know darn well that if someone starts smoking as a teenager they are much more likely to stay a smoker for life, and generally have a long history of bad behavior when it comes to making a few bucks for themselves. Industries that behave badly deserve the regulations they get.

I will agree that the FDA is over-stressed and under-resourced. I absolutely disagree that controlling a highly addictive drug with dangerous side effects is beyond their jurisdiction. You don't have to look too hard on the FDA site to find something that we know is dangerous and needs to be regulated. We know that high-traffic intersections can be dangerous, right? And since everybody knows this, we can just take down all those silly useless stop signs and traffic lights. Right??  No???

I don't know what to make of Anon's comment about taxes on cigarettes, which are already very heavily taxed already. I worry these taxes tend to be an extra burden on the poor, but I have no sympathy for those in the business of distributing cigarettes. If the distributors don't like it, then there are plenty of other products they can make money distributing.

So to wrap this up; No, Steve Buyer was not right ... about the lettuce.

Addendum: TBA
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