Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts

Monday, December 17, 2012

Discussing Firearms Insurance

There has been considerable commentary on G+ to my post The Case for Firearms Insurance, and it has been almost entirely constructive discussion. I was surprised the conversation has not been a lot more rancorous, because this topic seems primed to bring out the worst in the internet. Not everyone agreed with me, but nearly all everyone gave it serious consideration. This post is a collection of link to various discussions:

Dave Hill posted his thoughts on his blog, and there are a number of comments.

I found this article on Justin Tapp's stream: Is Gun Liability Insurance the Next Big Thing? which is news of similar legislation actually having been introduced in Illinois. There are two discussions ongoing:
my G+ stream and in the Respectful Politics community.

Finally, more discussion in the Respectful Politics Community.

I have some additional comments, which will hopefully be appearing as new posts soon.

Oh, and one more thing, I wrote my Senator.

Sunday, December 16, 2012

A Word about "One Good Person with a Gun"

Following on my Firearms Insurance post from yesterday, I'd like to address a common argument in discussions about gun control: The hypothesis that "One Good Person" is all that is need to put an end to murders and crime, and therefore more people should carry guns, not fewer.

The argument goes, that one good person armed with a gun could put a stop to tragic mass shootings when they start, greatly reducing the harm done. The problem I have with this that it’s practically mathematically impossible. Without getting directly into the numbers, here is why I think this:

1) One is not enough: If the "One Person" knew in advance where the massacre would be, it would work. In practice we would need thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of armed individual carrying firearms on a regular basis. A significant portion of the population would have to be armed at all times in order that one of them might happen to be in the right place, at the right time, often enough, and soon enough, to make a difference.

2) "Good" is not enough: The "Good" person refers to intent, but they also must be very good at handling a firearm. And more than good, they must be nearly perfect. Accidents occur even to trained professional police officers, and the "Good Person" would need to be at least this good, if not considerably better.  Consider that thousands of people carrying firearms in public also means thousands of opportunities for accidents to happen. This risk will occur every day, not just on the day that some misguided soul decides to Go Postal take out their anger on innocents. Even a tiny risk of accident, multiplied by thousands and thousands of opportunities, will soon lead to more accidental shootings than the good people could ever prevent. **

** Add to this even a few gun owners that might want to "play Cowboy", and the harm could be far worse.

Put 1) and 2) together and it is pretty easy to see that the "One Good Person" hypothesis just doesn't work. It's a myth. The intention is fine, but the cure is worse than the disease. I could have looked up some statistics and put numbers on this, but then someone would just argue with my numbers. That is also my point - don't believe me - try it yourself: Find a source for firearms crime and injury statistics and put it to the test. I invite anyone to look up their own numbers and work this out for themselves. The math involved is fairly simple, but I can be available to help should that be needed.

Saturday, December 15, 2012

The Case for Firearms Insurance

We require automobile owners to carry vehicle insurance. It's time we did the same for firearms.

The tragic shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut are in the news this weekend. Tuesday it was a shopping mall in Oregon, and before that the salon in Brookfield, WI, just a few miles down the road from me. Before this topic fades into the news cycle again, I'd like to put forward my suggestion of a way to address the problem: Require gun owners to purchase insurance which will compensate victims wrongfully injured by weapons they own.

I don't like it when others drive recklessly, because I know that careless or uninsured drivers make my insurance rates higher. I'm a pretty careful driver, and I don't want my rates to go up, therefore I want other drivers to be careful too. Purchasing and maintaining a car is expensive, but that cost is dwarfed by the liability costs for possible injuries should I be responsible for an accident. Few people could afford to cover this cost themselves, but we have a system of automobile insurance which helps to share the burden of the high cost of injury and accident. This sort of insurance is such a good idea that is has been adopted as public policy in many places.

I suggest that firearms insurance can do the same thing, removing some of the burden and cost from the victims of a crime and placing it back on gun owners. There would be some amount of government regulation needed, but no more than  is needed for vehicle insurance, and the private insurance industry would handle the rest. I have been told that "gun control doesn't work", but it seems clear that our system of automobile control works. There are flaws, but on the whole it works very well. Why shouldn't this form of gun control work too?

If this seems like it might be expensive, realize that it is already expensive. We pay a huge cost for firearms injuries, most of which are paid for with public funds (see this: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7869455). We can shift that cost from a public tax burden to a private insurance burden. Quoting from the conclusion of the abstract (emphasis added):
"Ninety-six percent of the patients in this report had their costs of care covered by the government, because they had no primary insurance coverage. Primary prevention of firearm injuries, especially those caused by handguns, may be the most effective cost-control measure."
There is even potential here for lower taxes. If firearms injury rates come down, the taxes needed to pay the medical costs come down too. It could be argued that the private insurance industry is likely to be much more efficient about distributing money to victims that would otherwise be handled by Medicaid and Medicare.

Almost done, but I think I need to add a word or two about Second Amendment Rights. Suppose I were to say ...
"I have a right to happiness. If I had more money I could do a lots more fun things, and that would make me happy. Somebody give me $100,000 please, it's my right."
Which of course, it complete bullshit. No one is going to give me money just because I say it makes me happy. Likewise, I don't care to pay for the burden of irresponsible gun owners. I don't even want to remove anyone's rights. I want recognition that this right bears a heavy price tag, and a more equitable means of sharing that cost. If someone wants or needs a gun that's OK by me, but along with the Right of gun ownership they should be willing to accept the costs that come with it, and be prepared to pay for it themselves.

Update:
A follow-on, regarding my objection to the "One Good Person with a Gun" hypothesis.
Addendum: Is Gun Liability Insurance the Next Big Thing?




Thursday, November 1, 2012

More Survey Analysis

I'm repeating my previous post, since it seems relevant to review the data again before the election. I accessed all these sites at about 9:00 PM CST. I

Real Clear Politics
Obama 201
Romney 191
Toss Ups 146
Obama by +1 ECV

Intrade Presidential Election 2012
Obama ~67% win
Romney~33% win

FiveThirthyEight 
Obama 303.2 +/-56 ECV
Romney 234.8 -/+56 ECV
~81% Obama wins

HuffPost Pollster

Obama  277 ECV
Romney  206 ECV
Toss Ups 55 ECV
Obama has enough certain electoral votes to win.

Obama 285 ECV
Romney 191 ECV
Toss Ups 62 ECV (but 44 of those lean strongly towards Romney)

Election Analytics 
Obama 296.7
Romney 241.3
~99.4% Obama wins

As before, I have arranged these in roughly increasing order of favor for Obama winning the 2012 election. The last three sites (HuffPost, TPM, EA) are making strong claims that Obama has the electoral votes to win already. 538 is not far behind that claim.
RCP seems to be sitting on the fence, not making strong claim about the toss-up States, and there is nothing wrong with that.

Other notes:
HuffPost Pollster has been added to the results. (but you saw that already.)

FiveThirtyEight: Last time I made the claim that Nate Silver's analysis is as close to neutral as can be found. Today though, I saw this: Nate Silver bets Joe Scarborough $1000 that Obama wins. It is not clear if this was intended as a partisan statement, or simply a good bet. It's not wrong to claim Obama is a good bet.

Should I update again tomorrow?

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Survey Says ...

After discussing politics with a friend this morning, I was inspired to make the rounds of sites that accumulate political polling results and see what they all are saying. All results accessed on the web late afternoon on November 6th.

Real Clear Politics
Obama 201 +/-61
Romney 191 -/+61
Toss Ups 146
Obama by +10 ECV
(edit: those error bound probably belong to the 538 analysis, not RCP).

Intrade Presidential Election 2012
Obama 64.6% win
Romney 35.4% win

FiveThirthyEight 
Obama 294.6 ECV
Romney 243.3 ECV
~72.9% Obama wins

Obama 265
Romney 206
(Comment: therefore 67 are not certain)

Election Analytics 
Obama 291.4
Romney 246.6
~95% Obama wins

I have arranged these in increasing order of favor for Obama winning the 2012 election. Real Clear Politics and Talking Points Memo are sites I do not regularly follow, so I have no clear opinion of their methods. I suspect these sites have a conservative and liberal biases (respectively) but I have not direct evidence for that. Certainly if they are both presenting statistical results in an unbiased manner, they ought to have about the same conclusion. All I can really say here is that RCP doesn't offer much of a direct election forecast.

Edit: Intrade is another site I don't follow, but it has been getting a lot of media attention too.

I personally favor the methods Nate Silver uses on FiveThirtyEight, as I consider it to be the most technically sophisticated analysis, and it takes economic data into account as well. Silver offers a lot of day-to-day commentary on daily polling and his predictive model. Since the Democrats have lead the elections since the blog started in 2008, many of those prediction have been that Democrats are going to win. Some people interpret this an a liberal bias, but Silver's Senate predictions have been very good, and it not a bias if he is correct.  I have never seen Silver make anything close to an endorsement, and so on that basis I think FiveThirtyEight gives the most unbiased political analysis available.

Election Analytics is different from the others. It's a small academic page rather than a news site. Their statistical methods are sound, but they make some strong assumptions, which seems to be why they are able to make such a strong prediction for Obama winning. I haven't looked into just what these assumptions are, so I can't say if they are justified or not.

All this might not make my friend happy, but all the data is saying pretty much the same thing, with varying degrees on certainty.

Update: Added Intrade prediction at the suggestion of +Kevin Clift. Accessed the morning of 10/31/12.
Edit: next time I'll include this site too: http://electoral-vote.com/

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Suddenly, Statistics in the Recall is in the News

I don't know that I can take credit for this, but this morning Phil Scarr at Blogging Blue points me to an article at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
Analysis: Invalid signatures likely not enough to halt Walker recall

This seems to be just what I suggested in my previous post, two days ago. Whether or not I had the idea first, I applaud the effort.

[Edit: Fixed a link. I originally linked to a different but related post by Phil.]

Sunday, February 5, 2012

The Statistics of Verifying Recall Signatures

There is a huge political battle raging to Wisconsin, but you probably know this already. The drive to recall Governor Scott Walker has gotten plenty of media attention. Some 540,000 signatures are needed, and the Democrats turned in well over one million signatures to be verified. Walker supporters are hard at work trying to identify false signatures, to get as many petition thrown out as they can. That means about half of all signatures could be bad and the Democrats would still have enough to force a recall election. Given this rather daunting situation, how hard should Walker's supporters try? Do they really need to check 500,000 signature, a million signatures? How many is enough to be confident of a reliable result?

Regardless of your opinion about Scott Walker and the recall, some simple statistical sampling can help answer the question, and it requires checking far fewer than 500,000 signatures. I'm going to assume that each petition form contains 20 signatures, and 50,000 petition forms to total one million signatures. Essential to this process is a simple random sample**, where we can select a sample of petitions so that each form has an equal chance of being selected. There are fancier schemes, but this is the easiest way get an unbiased sample, and for me to explain.

Starting with a generous assumption that half of all signatures are fake, and that this number varies with a standard deviation of 2.6 bad signatures per petition, meaning most petitions have between 5 and 15 bad signatures (also generous). For a sample of size n petitions that gives a total count of x bad signatures the formula for the percentage bad is x/(20 * n) [x divided by (20 times n)] with a standard error of 2.6/sqrt(n)  [that's 2.6 divided by the square-root of n]. Based on the mathematical law of statistical averages from a random sample, we can say that the actual number of bad signatures is close to x/(20 * n), where close means it is within about 2 standard errors in 95% of all such samples performed in this way. For a sample of size n = 1000 petitions, our assumptions and statistics say we should observe 50% plus or minus about 3.2%, or between 46.8% and 53.2% bad signatures - IF the assumptions are correct. We can say there is a confidence level of about 95% (19 times out of 20) that the interval generated this way will capture the true rate of false signatures.


Now the good news: If the actual percentage is more or less than 50%, the standard error should be a little smaller either way, meaning the estimate will be a little more accurate. More good news: this setting is what statisticians call a "finite population sample", which means this estimate will be a little more accurate yet, because the recount is sampling a significant fraction of the total population.


Long story short, if you want to verify recall petitions, take a sample of about 1000 petitions, check them carefully, and calculate the percentage of bad signatures. If that percentage is less than 45% or so, then it is time to stop counting and start campaigning.


** In practice random samples are not always "simple", but this is what statisticians call it.

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Drinking Liberally in Waukesha

I just returned from the local Drinking Liberally event, which I learned about from reading local political blog Waukesha Wonk. Lately I've been to buried in work to be very motivated about anything, much less politics. However, this meeting was very informative about some behind the scenes goings-on, and it makes me realize how little I know about how politics actually works. The more I know, the more I want to make it work differently.

The guest speaker was Scott Wittkopf (Badger Democracy), who lead the discussion, shared some of his insights, and tipped us to some recent events. Scott is soft spoken and well-informed. I haven't been reading his blog previously, but it was clear he put a great deal of time into research for his blog and the articles he writes. If I had to pick one thing I came away with from this session, it new sense for the corporate political machine that has its grip on Wisconsin (for that matter, the nation), and the vital need to fight back against it.

Despite the "liberal" in Drinking Liberally, the event was non-partisan. People there seemed reasonable, and all were concerned about how wrong things have gone politically in Wisconsin. My thanks to Lisa and Phil for organizing, and the Spizzo Cafe for hosting. I plan to drink liberally* again next month.

* full disclosure - two beers is pretty liberal drinking for me nowadays.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Unquote

Credit and copyright, wikimedia commons
Borrowing (maybe stealing) a regular feature at Futility Closet, a quote for our times:
If you have a weak candidate and a weak platform, wrap yourself up in the American flag and talk about the Constitution. -Matthew Stanley Quay, senator (1833-1904)

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Heavy Hand of the Koch Brothers

Just this quick note for a BUSY election day. Cognitive Dissidence reports some excellent detective work on how the Koch brothers are operating behind the scenes in Wisconsin. Check it out, and go vote. Maybe not in that order.
*

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Madison as Hell

"An activist judge stubbornly insists that Wisconsin's legal system must be obeyed, even if Republicans disagree with it."

Or see it at Colbert Nation.

Wisconsin's Tuesday non-partisan elections are turning out to be anything but. The intensity and nastiness of 3rd party television advertising cannot be understated. I'm getting really tired of one sided calling the other stupid, ignorant, dirty, rabid, wicked, sleezy, anti-American, Communist, [re]tards, {inset ad hominem here}, scum, more ad hominemdisgusting, cruel, thug*, brutes, etc. etc..** Opinions aside, this language is uncalled for in any civilized discussion. If you cannot be bothered to think of an opponent as a real, thinking person with honest opinions, then you may not be qualified to be part of a civilized discussion.

* There seems to be a particular agenda to push this word, because it is showing up everywhere. It ain't random!
** These words culled from the comments at a site with decidedly one-sided opinions, but I'm pretty sure there are people on both sides speaking of/to each other like this.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

What Would Woody Do?

What Would Woody Do?


Simply amazing political events in Wisconsin this week (a few samples: 1, 2, 3).

I have been recalling the words of a wise man - a business professor and amazingly good teacher - and I recall them as:
Unions are bad, but if your company has a union, they probably deserve it.
It's not too hard to see how unions might cause inefficiency, and if business and workers all played fair with each other, everyone would be better off. It's not too hard to see the track record of businesses, and see that unions are sometimes the only recourse workers have to gain fair treatment - or even to punish businesses for bad behavior.

I don't have any easy answers, but I'm pretty sure that Governor Walker's move to take away collective bargaining rights for State workers is only asking for worse trouble. The union might be bad, but you deserve it. Deal with it. Negotiate with it. Be fair, and treat it with respect. Don't try to legislate it away, or it might be replaced by something even worse.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Political Cheese Fondue

There are extraordinary events in Wisconsin politics this week. Our new Governor's anti-union legislation has ignited an amazing response, turning normally placid Cheeseheads into a melting pot of political turmoil.  Here is a sampling:

Daily Kos: Scott Walker's Pants Spontaneously Combust!

The Political Environment: Republicans in Madison are Flailing Fleeing, Failing

Brew City BrawlerPackers, Catholic Church denounce Walker union busting

Live Twitter updates from the Capitol Rotunda, via @RecallWakerNow

Illusory Tennant: Scott Walker receives 8,000 emails

The Corner TavernWisconsin’s Diabolical Plot to Make Me Support the Packers


Saturday, October 30, 2010

The Real Secret of the Super Rich?

I found an interesting series of blog articles, starting here:


What caught my interest isn't so much that this reveals any surprising secrets, but that it is a reasonable mathematical analysis of the value of education and ability explained in simple terms. Simplified, but it makes a good point all the same.

I am less certain about the author's holistic politics, which are also interesting. However, I don't really have the time or energy right now to evaluate this properly. I do see a certain appeal in his mathematical approach to politics, but I remain skeptical that this approach can't be manipulated to fit specific goals, rather than the math driving the policy.
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Saturday, May 8, 2010

The census will be wrong. We could fix it.

This is sort of a professional pet peeve among statisticians, and the issue comes up with every census;

Jordan Ellenberg writes: Opponents say that statistical adjustment would violate the constitutional requirement of an "actual enumeration" of the population. Justice Antonin Scalia wrote in 1998 that the Constitution's language was "arguably incompatible . . . with gross statistical estimates." The sampling adjustment is indeed an estimate of the population -- but so is the unadjusted number, which estimates that the number of Americans missed is zero! To choose the raw count is to be wrong on purpose in order to avoid being wrong by accident.

Emphasis added. There are demonstrably better statistical methods to perform census estimates, and they should be used.


[Hat Tip 2 Terence Tao]
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Monday, April 19, 2010

Fair and Balanced and the short term memory of a gnat.

For your Monday morning amusement - Fox News never lies - Oh wait ...
Mark Evanier writes: The other day, Bill O'Reilly slapped a Congressman around for saying that Fox News was spreading the lie that if you don't buy health insurance, you'll go to jail. Here's an excerpt from that discussion and it's followed by...well, you can guess what it's followed by...


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Monday, March 8, 2010

Smoking Lettuce, Redux

An anonymous commenter replied to a video and comments I posted last June (see Smoking Lettuce). My posting has been lax lately, so the reply gets a whole post to itself. 

To briefly summarize, Representative Steve Buyer thinks smoking lettuce is the same as smoking cigarettes. I copied a statement from Buyer's web site stating that the FDA is under-funded and over-stressed and that they have no business trying to regulate a risky product; I agree to the first point and strongly disagree with the second. Oh ... and I might have implied that Representative Buyer is not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

But enough summarizing, you can read the original post if you must, let's get on to Anon's comment:



Anonymous said...
...Was he right? About the lettuce?

Well, actually, in the problems he outlined (Cancer, heart disease, and respiratory problems) he was right - you WOULD have similar problems. Now, in terms of the 'good stuff' - doubtful. Lettuce obviously wouldn't have whatever it is in tobacco that makes people keep smoking it (though I couldn't profess to know, in that I find smoking repulsive).

His point about the FDA? Yeah, it's overburdened and trying to sink its roots into nooks and crannies whenever it can. And when it tries regulating something that is already known to be dangerous - cigarettes - then it means your money is being spent insuring the 'safety' of a product that is KNOWN to be dangerous. How stupid can you get?!

And in the real world that most people don't like thinking about, the increased price on ciarettes as a result of the regulation would inflate the prices of legal smokes. So smokers get their cheaper cigs from elsewhere with less regulation - and the LEGAL distributors suffer, through no fault but the government's.

So yeah, what's up with Steve? Must be smoking lettuce or something.

Hello Anon,
Thanks for stopping by to comment. I suspect you have a certain political inclination on this, which is fine, but I think your concerns on this issue are misplaced.

You may indeed have similar problems with smoking lettuce, but I doubt there will ever be a serious study on the effects. However, I am certain that tobacco is naturally higher in aromatic hydrocarbons, tars, and has a number of ingredients artificially added (like formaldehyde). Aside from the smoke, chewing tobacco also has links to diseases such as oral cancer, and I am reasonable sure that you can chew lettuce all you want with no particular risk of cancer. So I can't prove that smoking lettuce is safer than smoking tobacco, but I strongly suspect it is true.

The stuff that keeps people smoking tobacco is nicotine, also naturally occurring, except that the tobacco companies strictly control the "dose" of nicotine delivered much in the same way that pharmaceutical companies control the dose of other drugs. If I recall, was the FDA's basis for the regulation of tobacco; tobacco may be naturally grown, but cigarettes are produced to the tolerances of prescription drug, are highly habit forming, are a serious health risk, and are marketed to kids. Now nicotine itself, addictive properties aside, isn't especially harmful, but it keeps their customers locked in a nearly unbreakable habit, and exposing themselves to the other harmful properties over-and-over again, sometimes for life ... and often a rather shorter and less healthy life. Tobacco companies know darn well that if someone starts smoking as a teenager they are much more likely to stay a smoker for life, and generally have a long history of bad behavior when it comes to making a few bucks for themselves. Industries that behave badly deserve the regulations they get.

I will agree that the FDA is over-stressed and under-resourced. I absolutely disagree that controlling a highly addictive drug with dangerous side effects is beyond their jurisdiction. You don't have to look too hard on the FDA site to find something that we know is dangerous and needs to be regulated. We know that high-traffic intersections can be dangerous, right? And since everybody knows this, we can just take down all those silly useless stop signs and traffic lights. Right??  No???

I don't know what to make of Anon's comment about taxes on cigarettes, which are already very heavily taxed already. I worry these taxes tend to be an extra burden on the poor, but I have no sympathy for those in the business of distributing cigarettes. If the distributors don't like it, then there are plenty of other products they can make money distributing.

So to wrap this up; No, Steve Buyer was not right ... about the lettuce.

Addendum: TBA
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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Deniers != Skeptics

Author David Brin has a nice essay up about the difference between Deniers and Skeptics of Human Generated Climate Change. Here's an intro:




What factors would distinguish a rational, pro-science "skeptic" - who has honest questions about the HGCC consensus - from members of a Denier Movement who think a winter snowstorm means there's ni net-warming of the planet?

Is such a distinction anything more than polemical trickery?

Well, in fact, it happens that I know some people who do qualify as climate change "skeptics." Several are fellow science fiction authors or engineers, and you can quickly tell that they are vigorous, contrary minds, motivated more by curiosity than partisan rigor. One who I could name is the famed physicist Freeman Dyson.

(In fact, if truth be told, there are some aspects of HGCC that I feel I want clarified -- that seem to be poorly-justified, so far. I am an ornery, contrarian question-asker, of the first water!)

After extensive discussions with such folk, I found a set of distinct characteristics that separate thoughtful Skeptics from your run of the mill, knee-jerk Denier dogma puppet.

Here's the first one:

The first, second, and last, can be found at Contrary Brin.
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